The Toronto Blue Jays enter Tuesday's series in Cleveland 1.5 games behind the Guardians and with a 23% chance of reaching the postseason in RosterSpin's model.
Three games could change almost everything.
RosterSpin ran each possible series outcome through its playoff model: Toronto sweeping Cleveland, winning two of three, losing two of three or getting swept.
The difference between the best and worst outcomes for Toronto is enormous.
| Toronto's series | TOR playoff odds | CLE playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sweep 3-0 | ~51% | ~18% |
| Win 2-1 | ~32% | ~35% |
| Lose 1-2 | ~15% | ~57% |
| Swept 0-3 | ~4% | ~75% |
Current baseline: Toronto 23% · Cleveland 48%.
If Toronto sweeps: ~51%
This is the result that completely flips the race between Toronto and Cleveland.
The Blue Jays currently sit at 23% in RosterSpin's model, compared with Cleveland at 48%.
If Toronto sweeps all three games, the Blue Jays would leave Cleveland at 71-70 while the Guardians fall to 69-71.
That would turn a 1.5-game Toronto deficit into a 1.5-game advantage over Cleveland.
Under that scenario, RosterSpin's model puts Toronto's playoff probability at roughly 51%, an increase of about 28 percentage points.
Cleveland goes sharply in the other direction, falling from 48% to roughly 18%.
A sweep would not necessarily guarantee Toronto the final Wild Card position. Baltimore and Texas are also within striking distance and will be playing their own games while the Blue Jays and Guardians face each other.
If Toronto wins two of three: ~32%
Toronto doesn't need a sweep to make significant progress.
Winning two of three would leave the Blue Jays at 70-71 and Cleveland at 70-70, cutting Toronto's deficit against the Guardians from 1.5 games to just half a game.
RosterSpin's model gives Toronto roughly a 32% playoff probability in that scenario, up from 23% entering the series.
Cleveland would fall to roughly 35%.
That would leave the two teams essentially neck-and-neck in the model heading into the final weeks of the season.
Their exact positions in the Wild Card race would still depend on what Baltimore, Texas and the rest of the field do during the series.
If Toronto loses two of three: ~15%
The series can move just as quickly in Cleveland's direction.
If Toronto wins only one game, the Blue Jays would leave Cleveland at 69-72 while the Guardians improve to 71-69.
Toronto would fall 2.5 games behind Cleveland, and its RosterSpin playoff probability would drop from 23% to roughly 15%.
Cleveland, meanwhile, would climb to approximately 57%.
Instead of building on the ground gained during its sweep of Seattle, Toronto would give much of it right back.
If Cleveland sweeps: Toronto falls to ~4%
This is the danger for the Blue Jays.
Three Cleveland wins would leave the Guardians at 72-68 and Toronto at 68-73. The gap between the two teams would grow from 1.5 games to 4.5.
RosterSpin's model gives Toronto only about a 4% chance of reaching the postseason under that scenario.
Cleveland would rise to roughly 75%.
In other words, the difference between Toronto sweeping and being swept is approximately a 47-percentage-point range in the Blue Jays' modeled playoff probability: about 51% at one extreme and 4% at the other.
Toronto and Cleveland aren't alone
There is an important complication in all four scenarios.
Toronto and Cleveland can directly change their positions relative to each other this week, but they don't control the entire AL Wild Card race.
Baltimore enters the series only one game behind Cleveland, while Texas is two games back. Wins by either club during the Toronto-Cleveland series could change who actually occupies the final Wild Card position by Thursday.
That's why these scenarios should not be read as predictions of exactly what the standings — or RosterSpin's live playoff probabilities — will show after the series.
RosterSpin simulated each possible series outcome using its MLB playoff model, which runs 25,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Other future games were simulated normally.
Actual results elsewhere in the American League will matter.
Three games with enormous leverage
That uncertainty doesn't diminish the importance of this series.
It demonstrates just how much leverage these two teams have over each other.
Toronto enters Cleveland with a 23% playoff probability. The Guardians enter at 48%.
A Blue Jays sweep would put Toronto 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland and push its modeled playoff chances to roughly 51%.
A Cleveland sweep would leave Toronto 4.5 games behind the Guardians and reduce its modeled postseason chances to about 4%.
Baltimore and Texas may have something to say about who ultimately holds the final Wild Card spot.
But for Toronto and Cleveland, the stakes of these three games are unmistakable.