The Toronto Blue Jays couldn't have asked for much more from their weekend against the Seattle Mariners.
Three wins later, Toronto has gained a full game in the AL Wild Card race and RosterSpin's playoff model has raised the Blue Jays' postseason chances from 15% to 23%.
The Blue Jays completed the sweep with a 7-0 win Sunday, improving to 68-70 and moving within 1.5 games of the Cleveland Guardians for the American League's final Wild Card spot. Max Scherzer delivered his best start as a Blue Jay in the finale, allowing one hit over seven scoreless innings while striking out 10.
Toronto's playoff odds climb
Before Friday's games, RosterSpin's playoff model gave the Blue Jays a 15% chance of reaching the postseason.
After Sunday's games, that number stands at 23%.
That's an increase of eight percentage points in one weekend.
Toronto also gained a full game in the Wild Card standings, moving from 2.5 games behind Cleveland on Friday night to 1.5 games back after Sunday's action.
But the biggest change becomes clear when Toronto's movement is compared directly with Cleveland's.
The Guardians entered the weekend with a 56% playoff probability in RosterSpin's model, compared with Toronto at 15% — a gap of 41 percentage points.
Cleveland lost the first two games of its weekend series against Kansas City before responding with an 11-1 win Sunday. The Guardians now sit at 48%, while Toronto is at 23%.
The gap between the two teams has narrowed from 41 percentage points to 25 — a 16-percentage-point swing in just one weekend.
Seattle takes the biggest hit
Toronto's gain came largely at Seattle's expense.
The Mariners entered the weekend with an 18% playoff probability and sat four games behind Cleveland. After being swept in Toronto, Seattle is now five games back and RosterSpin's model gives the Mariners just a 10% chance of reaching the postseason.
The sweep didn't vault Toronto into a playoff position, but it did help separate the Blue Jays from one of the teams chasing the same spot.
And the race remains crowded.
Baltimore finished Sunday just one game behind Cleveland, with Toronto 1.5 games back and Texas two games behind. RosterSpin's model currently gives Cleveland a 48% playoff probability, Texas 30%, Toronto 23% and Baltimore 22%.
Now Toronto gets Cleveland
The timing couldn't be better for the Blue Jays.
After Monday's off-day, Toronto opens a three-game series in Cleveland on Tuesday against the team currently holding the final AL Wild Card position.
Instead of relying on another team to beat the Guardians, the Blue Jays now have an opportunity to make up ground themselves.
Toronto entered the weekend with a 15% playoff probability and a 2.5-game deficit.
Three wins later, the Blue Jays are still outside the playoff field — but the gap is down to 1.5 games, their postseason probability is up to 23%, and the team standing directly in their way is next on the schedule.