Tuesday, Cleveland took game one of its series with Toronto and Texas won as well, making the Guardians and Rangers the two biggest risers in RosterSpin's playoff model. Baltimore moved the opposite direction, slipping to 18.7%.
On Wednesday, the race swung right back the other way.
Toronto routed Cleveland 11–0 to even that series. Texas lost 9–2 to the Athletics. Baltimore blew a two-run, 11th-inning lead in a 6–5 loss to Colorado.
The result: an MLB playoff picture that's suddenly as crowded as it's been all September. Cleveland still holds the final spot at 70–69, but Toronto, Texas and Baltimore are all sitting at 69–71, just 1.5 games back.
Blue Jays snap right back to 23%
No result moved the race more than Toronto's 11–0 win in Cleveland.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in five runs, including a three-run homer, and Dylan Cease fired six scoreless innings as the Blue Jays evened their series with the Guardians.
That win pushed Toronto's playoff probability back to 23% in RosterSpin's model, a full reversal from where it stood a day earlier.
The Blue Jays entered the series at 23% after sweeping Seattle, dropped to 13.8% after Tuesday's 6–1 loss, and are now right back where they started.
More importantly, they sit just 1.5 games behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot.
Cleveland gives some back
Cleveland was the biggest winner in Tuesday's update, jumping 9.9 percentage points to 55.4%.
After Wednesday's loss, the Guardians have settled back to 48%.
Cleveland is still in the driver's seat because its playoff magic number sits at 22 against Baltimore, the first team outside the field, but the cushion is gone.
Three teams are within 1.5 games.
Texas and Baltimore miss their shot
Texas had also been trending up, gaining 8.9 percentage points Tuesday to reach 40%.
A 9–2 loss to the Athletics on Wednesday knocked that back to 32%.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has now lost ground two days running, down to 18.7% Tuesday, then carrying a two-run lead into the 11th Wednesday before Colorado walked it off 6–5.
The Orioles are now 69–71 alongside Toronto and Texas, and sit at 16% in the model.
AL Wild Card playoff odds, as of September 2:
- Cleveland Guardians — 48%
- Texas Rangers — 32%
- Toronto Blue Jays — 23%
- Baltimore Orioles — 16%
Why identical records don't mean identical odds
Toronto, Texas and Baltimore are all 69–71, but their playoff odds aren't close to identical.
That's because RosterSpin's model simulates the actual remaining schedule rather than treating every team's remaining games as equal.
And those schedules look very different.
Toronto gets plenty of head-to-head control. After Thursday's series finale in Cleveland, the Jays play three at Kansas City and three against the Athletics, then have six games remaining against Baltimore and three against Texas later in September.
Cleveland still has to survive plenty of direct competition, including three games at Baltimore next week.
Texas faces the toughest immediate stretch of the four. The Rangers begin a four-game series against division-leading Tampa Bay on Thursday, followed by road series in Seattle and Arizona, before later matchups with Boston, Toronto and the Mets.
Baltimore may have the most head-to-head opportunity of anyone. Nine of the Orioles' remaining games come against Cleveland (3) and Toronto (6). These are chances not just to add wins, but to take them directly from two of the teams they're chasing.
The schedules help explain why three clubs with identical 69–71 records can have meaningfully different playoff probabilities.
One more Cleveland–Toronto game first
Before any of that, Toronto and Cleveland close out their series Thursday.
A Guardians win rebuilds some cushion.
A Blue Jays win pulls Toronto to within half a game.
And with MLB's postseason format no longer using a Game 163 tiebreaker, head-to-head results could matter a great deal if these teams finish with identical records.
Two days into this series, the swings have already gone both ways.
Tuesday belonged to Cleveland. Its playoff odds surged while Toronto's fell all the way to 13.8%.
Twenty-four hours later, Toronto is back at 23% and Cleveland has fallen to 48%.
With less than a month left and four teams packed into 1.5 games around one playoff position, don't expect the swings to stop.