Beats career high
65%
154+ points
Can McDavid catch Gretzky's 215?
An 84-game season. A 215-point record. Connor McDavid's chase, one game at a time.
Updated 2026-10-22, 4:19:49 p.m. UTC · After Game 9 vs MIN
Connor McDavid
26
6 G · 20 A · 9 GP
2026–27
Wayne Gretzky
215
52 G · 163 A · 80 GP
1985–86 · NHL record
Straight-line pace
242
84-game season
Points per game
2.89
Current scoring rate
Needed to break it
190
To reach 216 points
Per game rest of season
2.53
75 games remaining
2 points ahead of Gretzky through 9 games.
The chase, game by game
Will he do it?
Reaches 200
9%
200+ points
Breaks 215
3%
216+ points
Most likely finish: 163 points. 80% of simulations land between 133 and 198.
100,000 simulations blend this season's scoring with his completed NHL career rate (1.54 per game), weighted as 30 games. Each trial draws an uncertain gamma scoring rate, then Poisson points over the remaining games. Assumes he plays all 75 remaining games; injuries and lineup changes are not modeled.
Four extra games
McDavid has an 84-game schedule; Gretzky set the record in 80 games.
The scoring standard
McDavid: 2.89 points per game. Gretzky in 1985–86: 2.69.
A club of one
Only Wayne Gretzky has reached 200 points in an NHL season. He did it four times.
His own high-water mark
McDavid’s career high is 153 points, set in 2022–23.
Game log
| Date | Opp | G | A | Pts | Total | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 | vs MIN | 0 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 242 |
| 10-17 | @ UTA | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 241 |
| 10-15 | vs UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 216 |
| 10-13 | @ LAK | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 238 |
| 10-10 | @ SJS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 218 |
| 10-07 | @ ANA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 252 |
| 10-03 | vs SEA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 252 |
| 10-01 | @ VAN | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 294 |
| 09-29 | vs VAN | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 168 |
Frequently asked questions
What is Connor McDavid's points pace?
Connor McDavid has 26 points in 9 games, a straight-line pace of 242 points over 84 games.
What is the NHL record for points in a season?
Wayne Gretzky scored 215 points (52 goals, 163 assists) in 80 games in 1985–86.
Can McDavid break Gretzky's record?
He needs 190 more points to reach 216, or 2.53 per remaining game. The model estimates a 3% chance; its median finish is 163 points. This is a projection, not a guarantee.