Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances
W–L–OT 4‑1‑0 · 8 pts
2nd in the Atlantic.
Make playoffs: 61%
Data checked Oct 11, 2026, 8:05 PM MDT · based on completed games in this snapshot
Next game: at New Jersey Devils
Mon, Oct 12 · Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
65%
OT/SO win
65%
OT/SO loss
60%
Regulation loss
57%
The Senators are 4‑1‑0 with 8 points and are 2nd in the Atlantic. They make the playoffs in 61% of simulated seasons and are projected to finish with about 96 points.
Upcoming games
vs St. Louis Blues · Tue, Oct 13
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
65%
OT/SO win
66%
OT/SO loss
61%
Regulation loss
57%
vs New York Islanders · Thu, Oct 15
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
66%
OT/SO win
65%
OT/SO loss
61%
Regulation loss
56%
at Philadelphia Flyers · Sat, Oct 17
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
66%
OT/SO win
65%
OT/SO loss
61%
Regulation loss
56%
vs Florida Panthers · Wed, Oct 21
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
66%
OT/SO win
67%
OT/SO loss
58%
Regulation loss
57%
Estimates are rounded; small differences may reflect simulation variation. A scenario needs at least 500 simulated seasons to be shown; otherwise it reads "Unavailable".
Full odds
Final position (exactly one happens; adds to 100%)
- 1st in division
- 18%
- 2nd in division
- 16%
- 3rd in division
- 14%
- WC1
- 7%
- WC2
- 7%
- Miss playoffs
- 39%
Achievements (can overlap; do not add up)
- 1st in conference
- 10%
- Presidents' Trophy
- 5%
- Reach Round 2
- 31%
- Reach Conference Final
- 15%
- Reach Stanley Cup Final
- 8%
- Win Stanley Cup
- 4%
Projected points: 96 (range 85–106)
The range covers the middle 80% of simulated final-points outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Points comparison
Maximum possible points: 166 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 157
Ottawa points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Ottawa is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
87 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Atlantic Division
FAQ
Can the Senators make the playoffs?
We have no verified clinch or elimination for the Senators, so the answer is an estimate. In our simulations they reach the playoffs in 61% of seasons. Only the official NHL standings can confirm a clinch or elimination.
What are the Senators' playoff chances?
The Senators make the playoffs in 61% of 20,000 simulated seasons, win the Atlantic Division in 18% and win the Stanley Cup in 4%. Every remaining game is treated as a toss-up, with overtime and shootout points included.
How many points do the Senators need to make the playoffs?
There is no single guaranteed total: it depends on how other teams finish, division places and tiebreakers. In our simulations, the second wild-card team in the Eastern Conference finishes with a median of 95 points. That is an estimate and a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total. The Senators are projected to finish with about 96 points (middle 80% of simulations: 85–106).