Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances
W–L–OT 2‑2‑1 · 5 pts
1 point behind WC2.
Make playoffs: 46%
Data checked Oct 11, 2026, 8:05 PM MDT · based on completed games in this snapshot
Next game: vs Buffalo Sabres
Tue, Oct 13 · Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
50%
OT/SO win
49%
OT/SO loss
47%
Regulation loss
41%
The Canadiens are 2‑2‑1 with 5 points and are 1 point behind WC2. They make the playoffs in 46% of simulated seasons and are projected to finish with about 93 points.
Upcoming games
at Washington Capitals · Wed, Oct 14
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
50%
OT/SO win
51%
OT/SO loss
44%
Regulation loss
42%
vs Buffalo Sabres · Sat, Oct 17
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
51%
OT/SO win
48%
OT/SO loss
45%
Regulation loss
41%
vs San Jose Sharks · Tue, Oct 20
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
50%
OT/SO win
50%
OT/SO loss
47%
Regulation loss
41%
at Chicago Blackhawks · Fri, Oct 23
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
50%
OT/SO win
50%
OT/SO loss
44%
Regulation loss
42%
Estimates are rounded; small differences may reflect simulation variation. A scenario needs at least 500 simulated seasons to be shown; otherwise it reads "Unavailable".
Full odds
Final position (exactly one happens; adds to 100%)
- 1st in division
- 10%
- 2nd in division
- 11%
- 3rd in division
- 12%
- WC1
- 6%
- WC2
- 7%
- Miss playoffs
- 54%
Achievements (can overlap; do not add up)
- 1st in conference
- 5%
- Presidents' Trophy
- 2%
- Reach Round 2
- 23%
- Reach Conference Final
- 12%
- Reach Stanley Cup Final
- 6%
- Win Stanley Cup
- 3%
Projected points: 93 (range 82–103)
The range covers the middle 80% of simulated final-points outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Points comparison
Maximum possible points: 163 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 158
Washington points earned + Montreal points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Montreal on points. That would not by itself eliminate Montreal.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
90 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 57% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Atlantic Division
FAQ
Can the Canadiens make the playoffs?
We have no verified clinch or elimination for the Canadiens, so the answer is an estimate. In our simulations they reach the playoffs in 46% of seasons. Only the official NHL standings can confirm a clinch or elimination.
What are the Canadiens' playoff chances?
The Canadiens make the playoffs in 46% of 20,000 simulated seasons, win the Atlantic Division in 10% and win the Stanley Cup in 3%. Every remaining game is treated as a toss-up, with overtime and shootout points included.
How many points do the Canadiens need to make the playoffs?
There is no single guaranteed total: it depends on how other teams finish, division places and tiebreakers. In our simulations, the second wild-card team in the Eastern Conference finishes with a median of 95 points. That is an estimate and a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total. The Canadiens are projected to finish with about 93 points (middle 80% of simulations: 82–103).