Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances
W–L–OT 3‑2‑1 · 7 pts
WC1 in the East.
Make playoffs: 51%
Data checked Oct 11, 2026, 8:05 PM MDT · based on completed games in this snapshot
Next game: at Utah Mammoth
Tue, Oct 13 · Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
55%
OT/SO win
55%
OT/SO loss
49%
Regulation loss
46%
The Maple Leafs are 3‑2‑1 with 7 points and are WC1 in the East. They make the playoffs in 51% of simulated seasons and are projected to finish with about 94 points.
Upcoming games
vs Buffalo Sabres · Thu, Oct 15
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
55%
OT/SO win
56%
OT/SO loss
49%
Regulation loss
46%
vs New York Islanders · Sat, Oct 17
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
55%
OT/SO win
54%
OT/SO loss
51%
Regulation loss
45%
vs San Jose Sharks · Mon, Oct 19
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
55%
OT/SO win
55%
OT/SO loss
48%
Regulation loss
46%
at Columbus Blue Jackets · Tue, Oct 20
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
56%
OT/SO win
54%
OT/SO loss
50%
Regulation loss
45%
Estimates are rounded; small differences may reflect simulation variation. A scenario needs at least 500 simulated seasons to be shown; otherwise it reads "Unavailable".
Full odds
Final position (exactly one happens; adds to 100%)
- 1st in division
- 12%
- 2nd in division
- 13%
- 3rd in division
- 13%
- WC1
- 7%
- WC2
- 7%
- Miss playoffs
- 49%
Achievements (can overlap; do not add up)
- 1st in conference
- 6%
- Presidents' Trophy
- 3%
- Reach Round 2
- 26%
- Reach Conference Final
- 13%
- Reach Stanley Cup Final
- 6%
- Win Stanley Cup
- 3%
Projected points: 94 (range 83–104)
The range covers the middle 80% of simulated final-points outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Points comparison
Maximum possible points: 163 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 158
Toronto points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Toronto is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
88 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.4% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Atlantic Division
FAQ
Can the Maple Leafs make the playoffs?
We have no verified clinch or elimination for the Maple Leafs, so the answer is an estimate. In our simulations they reach the playoffs in 51% of seasons. Only the official NHL standings can confirm a clinch or elimination.
What are the Maple Leafs' playoff chances?
The Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 51% of 20,000 simulated seasons, win the Atlantic Division in 12% and win the Stanley Cup in 3%. Every remaining game is treated as a toss-up, with overtime and shootout points included.
How many points do the Maple Leafs need to make the playoffs?
There is no single guaranteed total: it depends on how other teams finish, division places and tiebreakers. In our simulations, the second wild-card team in the Eastern Conference finishes with a median of 95 points. That is an estimate and a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total. The Maple Leafs are projected to finish with about 94 points (middle 80% of simulations: 83–104).