NHL · 2026–27 season
NHL Magic Numbers
Official NHL clinching status, points comparisons against named rivals, and projected wild-card targets. The rival comparisons are not exact playoff-clinching numbers.
Data checked Oct 11, 2026, 7:05 PM MDT · based on completed games in this snapshot.
Eastern Conference
Projected WC2 points: 95. Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Atlantic top three
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 166 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 157
Tampa Bay points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Tampa Bay is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Points comparison vs Ottawa (division race): 159
Tampa Bay points earned + Ottawa points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Tampa Bay is guaranteed to finish ahead of Ottawa on points.
Finishing ahead of this rival does not by itself guarantee the division title.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
87 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 166 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 157
Ottawa points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Ottawa is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
87 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 157
Boston points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Boston is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
87 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.8% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Metropolitan top three
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (77 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 155
NY Rangers points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 155, NY Rangers is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Points comparison vs Carolina (division race): 156
NY Rangers points earned + Carolina points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 156, NY Rangers is guaranteed to finish ahead of Carolina on points.
Finishing ahead of this rival does not by itself guarantee the division title.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
85 more points in 77 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.2% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 165 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 156
Carolina points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 156, Carolina is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
86 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 163 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 158
Pittsburgh points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Pittsburgh is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
88 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.4% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Wild cards
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 163 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 158
Toronto points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Toronto is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
88 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.4% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Florida: 159
Washington points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
89 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.3% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Outside the current playoff places
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 159
Washington points earned + Florida points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida on points. That would not by itself eliminate Florida.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
89 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.3% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 163 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 158
Washington points earned + Montreal points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Montreal on points. That would not by itself eliminate Montreal.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
90 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 57% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (80 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 159
Washington points earned + New Jersey points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of New Jersey on points. That would not by itself eliminate New Jersey.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
91 more points in 80 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.9% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (80 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 159
Washington points earned + Columbus points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Columbus on points. That would not by itself eliminate Columbus.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
91 more points in 80 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.9% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 162 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 157
Washington points earned + NY Islanders points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of NY Islanders on points. That would not by itself eliminate NY Islanders.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
91 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 57.6% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 162 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 157
Washington points earned + Buffalo points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Buffalo on points. That would not by itself eliminate Buffalo.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
91 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 57.6% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 161 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 156
Washington points earned + Detroit points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 156, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Detroit on points. That would not by itself eliminate Detroit.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
92 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 58.2% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 158 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Washington: 153
Washington points earned + Philadelphia points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 153, Washington is guaranteed to finish ahead of Philadelphia on points. That would not by itself eliminate Philadelphia.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 95
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
93 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 59.6% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Western Conference
Projected WC2 points: 94. Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Central top three
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 157
Utah points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Utah is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Points comparison vs Minnesota (division race): 158
Utah points earned + Minnesota points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Utah is guaranteed to finish ahead of Minnesota on points.
Finishing ahead of this rival does not by itself guarantee the division title.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
86 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 165 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 158
Minnesota points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Minnesota is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
87 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 165 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 158
Winnipeg points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Winnipeg is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
87 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Pacific top three
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 166 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 155
Vegas points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 155, Vegas is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Points comparison vs Edmonton (division race): 158
Vegas points earned + Edmonton points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Vegas is guaranteed to finish ahead of Edmonton on points.
Finishing ahead of this rival does not by itself guarantee the division title.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
84 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 53.8% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 167 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 156
Edmonton points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 156, Edmonton is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
85 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 53.8% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 166 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 157
Anaheim points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Anaheim is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
86 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 54.4% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Wild cards
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 157
Seattle points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Seattle is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
86 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.1% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 159
Colorado points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
88 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.7% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Outside the current playoff places
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 159
Colorado points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points. That would not by itself eliminate Nashville.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
88 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.7% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 164 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 159
Colorado points earned + San Jose points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 159, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of San Jose on points. That would not by itself eliminate San Jose.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
88 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 55.7% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 163 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 158
Colorado points earned + Dallas points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Dallas on points. That would not by itself eliminate Dallas.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
89 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.3% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 163 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 158
Colorado points earned + St. Louis points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of St. Louis on points. That would not by itself eliminate St. Louis.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
89 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 56.3% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 158 (77 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 153
Colorado points earned + Vancouver points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 153, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Vancouver on points. That would not by itself eliminate Vancouver.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
90 more points in 77 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 58.4% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 162 (80 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 157
Colorado points earned + Los Angeles points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 157, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Los Angeles on points. That would not by itself eliminate Los Angeles.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
92 more points in 80 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 57.5% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 158 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 153
Colorado points earned + Chicago points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 153, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Chicago on points. That would not by itself eliminate Chicago.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
92 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 59% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Points comparison & WC2 target
Maximum possible points: 158 (79 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Colorado: 153
Colorado points earned + Calgary points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 153, Colorado is guaranteed to finish ahead of Calgary on points. That would not by itself eliminate Calgary.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
94 more points in 79 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 59.5% points percentage — not winning percentage).
How these numbers work
Maximum possible points = current points + 2 × remaining regular-season games (84 games per team this season).
For two named teams A and B, the points A needs to secure a strict points lead are B's maximum possible points − A's current points + 1 (never below zero). Any combination of points A earns and points B drops from its remaining maximum that totals this number guarantees A finishes above B on points. A regulation loss drops 2 points, an overtime or shootout loss drops 1, and a win drops none.
This is the same arithmetic as a conventional magic number, applied to one named rival at a time. Teams in a playoff position are compared with the first team outside the current field; division leaders also with the second-place team in their division; teams outside are compared with the current WC2 team. Rivals can change between snapshots, so these are not fixed countdowns, exact playoff magic numbers or tragic numbers. Tied-points outcomes are left to the NHL tiebreakers and are not decided here.
Official statuses come only from the NHL standings indicator saved with this snapshot. This version does not calculate exact playoff-clinching scenarios or mathematical elimination. How the odds work.
FAQ
What is a magic number in hockey?
Conventionally, a magic number is the combination of points a team earns and points a rival drops that guarantees the team finishes ahead of that rival. The numbers on this page apply that arithmetic to two named teams at a time. They are not exact playoff-clinching numbers, which would have to account for every team and tiebreaker at once.
Why are these calculations in points rather than wins?
NHL standings are ranked by points: a win is worth two points and an overtime or shootout loss is worth one. Counting wins alone would ignore loser points.
How do overtime losses affect the comparison?
A regulation loss drops 2 points from a team's remaining maximum, an overtime or shootout loss drops 1, and any win drops none. Every point earned by one team or dropped by the other counts toward the comparison.
Does finishing ahead of the named rival guarantee a playoff spot?
No. Each comparison involves two teams only. Other teams can still finish ahead, so it does not establish playoff qualification, a division title or elimination.
Where do official clinched/eliminated labels come from?
Only from the NHL's own standings indicator (x clinched playoff berth, y clinched division, z clinched conference, p Presidents' Trophy, e eliminated), saved with the same snapshot as everything else on this page. We never infer them from simulations or from these comparisons. When no indicator is present, no status is shown.
How do tiebreakers and the projected WC2 reference differ from these calculations?
The comparisons require a strict points lead and do not decide teams level on points, where NHL tiebreakers apply. The projected WC2 total is the median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations — a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total. This version does not calculate exact playoff-clinching scenarios.