Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Chances
W–L–OT 5‑1‑0 · 10 pts
1st in the Pacific.
Make playoffs: 66%
Data checked Oct 11, 2026, 8:05 PM MDT · based on completed games in this snapshot
Next game: at Minnesota Wild
Mon, Oct 12 · Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
70%
OT/SO win
71%
OT/SO loss
64%
Regulation loss
61%
The Golden Knights are 5‑1‑0 with 10 points and are 1st in the Pacific. They make the playoffs in 66% of simulated seasons and are projected to finish with about 97 points.
Upcoming games
at Nashville Predators · Tue, Oct 13
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
70%
OT/SO win
69%
OT/SO loss
65%
Regulation loss
60%
vs Calgary Flames · Thu, Oct 15
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
70%
OT/SO win
69%
OT/SO loss
63%
Regulation loss
61%
vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Sat, Oct 17
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
69%
OT/SO win
69%
OT/SO loss
66%
Regulation loss
61%
vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Tue, Oct 20
Playoff chance if…
Regulation win
69%
OT/SO win
69%
OT/SO loss
65%
Regulation loss
61%
Estimates are rounded; small differences may reflect simulation variation. A scenario needs at least 500 simulated seasons to be shown; otherwise it reads "Unavailable".
Full odds
Final position (exactly one happens; adds to 100%)
- 1st in division
- 20%
- 2nd in division
- 18%
- 3rd in division
- 15%
- WC1
- 7%
- WC2
- 6%
- Miss playoffs
- 34%
Achievements (can overlap; do not add up)
- 1st in conference
- 11%
- Presidents' Trophy
- 6%
- Reach Round 2
- 33%
- Reach Conference Final
- 16%
- Reach Stanley Cup Final
- 8%
- Win Stanley Cup
- 4%
Projected points: 97 (range 86–107)
The range covers the middle 80% of simulated final-points outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Projected WC2 points: 94
Median final points of the second wild-card team in our simulations. This is a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total.
Points comparison
Maximum possible points: 166 (78 games remaining)
Points comparison vs Nashville: 155
Vegas points earned + Nashville points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 155, Vegas is guaranteed to finish ahead of Nashville on points.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
Points comparison vs Edmonton (division race): 158
Vegas points earned + Edmonton points dropped from its remaining maximum.
When that combination reaches 158, Vegas is guaranteed to finish ahead of Edmonton on points.
Finishing ahead of this rival does not by itself guarantee the division title.
This is a two-team comparison, not a playoff-clinching number.
84 more points in 78 games to reach the projected WC2 total (a 53.8% points percentage — not winning percentage).
Pacific Division
FAQ
Can the Golden Knights make the playoffs?
We have no verified clinch or elimination for the Golden Knights, so the answer is an estimate. In our simulations they reach the playoffs in 66% of seasons. Only the official NHL standings can confirm a clinch or elimination.
What are the Golden Knights' playoff chances?
The Golden Knights make the playoffs in 66% of 20,000 simulated seasons, win the Pacific Division in 20% and win the Stanley Cup in 4%. Every remaining game is treated as a toss-up, with overtime and shootout points included.
How many points do the Golden Knights need to make the playoffs?
There is no single guaranteed total: it depends on how other teams finish, division places and tiebreakers. In our simulations, the second wild-card team in the Western Conference finishes with a median of 94 points. That is an estimate and a reference point, not a guaranteed qualifying total. The Golden Knights are projected to finish with about 97 points (middle 80% of simulations: 86–107).