Football
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances 2026
3-1 · 1st in AFC East
The Buffalo Bills (3-1) lead the AFC East by one game over the New England Patriots and have an 83% chance to make the playoffs. They have beaten the Texans, the Lions and the Chargers, and have 13 games left.
Updated Sat Oct 10 · 4:48 AM ET · 20,000 simulated seasons · How it works
Make playoffs
83%
Win AFC East
56%
Projected wins
11.1
of 17 games
What this week is worth
Week 5 at Rams
- With a win
- 90%
- With a loss
- 75%
- Swing
- 15 pts
Final win total
1%5
2%6
4%7
7%8
11%9
14%10
17%11
17%12
14%13
9%14
4%15
1%16
Most likely: 11 wins (17%)
Playoff seed
- Seed 119%
- Seed 214%
- Seed 312%
- Seed 411%
- Seed 512%
- Seed 68%
- Seed 77%
- Miss playoffs17%
Division: Alive · Playoffs: Alive · Division magic number: 13
AFC East race
| Pos | Team | W-L-T | GB | DIV | CONF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 3-1 | — | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| 2 |  New England Patriots | 2-2 | 1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 3 |  New York Jets | 1-3 | 2 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 |  Miami Dolphins | 0-4 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-2 |
Teams with identical win percentages share a position.
Head-to-head vs division rivals
New England Patriots
- L 26–29 · Home · Sun, Oct 4
- Upcoming · Away · Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6
New York Jets
- Upcoming · Away · Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15
- Upcoming · Home · Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10
Miami Dolphins
- Upcoming · Home · Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22
- Upcoming · Away · Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Houston Texans | Away | W 36–31 |
| 2 | vsDetroit Lions | Home | W 41–31 |
| 3 | vsLos Angeles Chargers | Home | W 24–16 |
| 4 | vsNew England Patriots | Home | L 26–29 |
Remaining schedule
Remaining strength of schedule: .519 combined opponent win percentage — 8th toughest of 32.
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Opp record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mon, Oct 12 | @Los Angeles Rams | Away | 2-2 |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 18 | @Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 3-1 |
| 8 | Sun, Nov 1 | vsBaltimore Ravens | Home | 3-1 |
| 9 | Mon, Nov 9 | @Minnesota Vikings | Away | 4-0 |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @New York Jets | Away | 1-3 |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | vsMiami Dolphins | Home | 0-4 |
| 12 | Thu, Nov 26 | vsKansas City Chiefs | Home | 4-0 |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | @New England Patriots | Away | 2-2 |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @Green Bay Packers | Away | 2-2 |
| 15 | Sat, Dec 19 | vsChicago Bears | Home | 3-1 |
| 16 | Fri, Dec 25 | @Denver Broncos | Away | 2-2 |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @Miami Dolphins | Away | 0-4 |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vsNew York Jets | Home | 1-3 |
FAQ
- What are the Buffalo Bills' chances of making the playoffs?
- The Bills have an 83% chance to make the 2026 playoffs and a 56% chance to win the AFC East, based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Bills' record in 2026?
- The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 (0-1 in division games, 2-1 in conference games), 1st in AFC East.
- Who do the Bills play next?
- The Bills play on the road against the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) in Week 5 on Mon, Oct 12.
- How many games do the Bills have left?
- The Bills have 13 regular-season games left after playing 4.
Related
Updated OCT 9 · 11:02 PM ET