Football
New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2026
2-2 · 2nd in AFC East
The New England Patriots (2-2) sit 2nd in the AFC East, one game behind the Buffalo Bills and have a 72% chance to make the playoffs. They have beaten the Steelers and the Bills, and have 13 games left.
Updated Sat Oct 10 · 4:48 AM ET · 20,000 simulated seasons · How it works
Make playoffs
72%
Win AFC East
40%
Projected wins
10.1
of 17 games
What this week is worth
Week 5 vs Raiders
- With a win
- 80%
- With a loss
- 52%
- Swing
- 28 pts
Final win total
1%4
2%5
4%6
7%7
11%8
15%9
17%10
17%11
13%12
9%13
4%14
1%15
Most likely: 10 wins (17%)
Playoff seed
- Seed 18%
- Seed 210%
- Seed 311%
- Seed 412%
- Seed 513%
- Seed 610%
- Seed 78%
- Miss playoffs29%
Division: Alive · Playoffs: Alive · Magic numbers
AFC East race
| Pos | Team | W-L-T | GB | DIV | CONF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buffalo Bills | 3-1 | — | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 2-2 | 1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 3 |  New York Jets | 1-3 | 2 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 |  Miami Dolphins | 0-4 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-2 |
Teams with identical win percentages share a position.
Head-to-head vs division rivals
Buffalo Bills
- W 29–26 · Away · Sun, Oct 4
- Upcoming · Home · Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6
New York Jets
- Upcoming · Home · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18
- Upcoming · Away · Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27
Miami Dolphins
- Upcoming · Away · Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1
- Upcoming · Home · Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Seattle Seahawks | Away | L 10–13 |
| 2 | vsPittsburgh Steelers | Home | W 20–3 |
| 3 | @Jacksonville Jaguars | Away | L 6–35 |
| 4 | @Buffalo Bills | Away | W 29–26 |
Remaining schedule
Remaining strength of schedule: .481 combined opponent win percentage — 21st toughest of 32.
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Opp record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sun, Oct 11 | vsLas Vegas Raiders | Home | 3-1 |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 18 | vsNew York Jets | Home | 1-3 |
| 7 | Thu, Oct 22 | @Chicago Bears | Away | 3-1 |
| 8 | Sun, Nov 1 | @Miami Dolphins | Away | 0-4 |
| 9 | Sun, Nov 8 | vsGreen Bay Packers | Home | 2-2 |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | vsDetroit Lions | Neutral · FC Bayern Munich Stadium | 2-2 |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 0-4 |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | vsBuffalo Bills | Home | 3-1 |
| 14 | Thu, Dec 10 | vsMinnesota Vikings | Home | 4-0 |
| 15 | Mon, Dec 21 | @Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 4-0 |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | @New York Jets | Away | 1-3 |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vsDenver Broncos | Home | 2-2 |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vsMiami Dolphins | Home | 0-4 |
FAQ
- What are the New England Patriots' chances of making the playoffs?
- The Patriots have a 72% chance to make the 2026 playoffs and a 40% chance to win the AFC East, based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- What is the Patriots' record in 2026?
- The New England Patriots are 2-2 (1-0 in division games, 2-1 in conference games), 2nd in AFC East.
- Who do the Patriots play next?
- The Patriots play at home against the Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) in Week 5 on Sun, Oct 11.
- How many games do the Patriots have left?
- The Patriots have 13 regular-season games left after playing 4.
Related
Updated OCT 9 · 11:02 PM ET