Which NFL team has the best playoff odds?

The Minnesota Vikings (4-0) have the best playoff odds at 89%, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at 88% and the Jacksonville Jaguars at 87%.

How often are the odds updated?

After every game, usually within an hour or two of the final score.

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NFL Playoff Odds 2026

Q: How are NFL playoff odds calculated?

Each team has a rating built from every NFL result since 1999. We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times using those ratings, including home-field advantage and the chance of ties, and apply the NFL's official seeding and tiebreaker rules to every simulated season.

Every NFL team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning its division and its projected win total, from simulations of the rest of the season.

Updated Sat Oct 10 · 4:48 AM ET · 20,000 simulated seasons · How it works

Best playoff odds

Vikings

89%

4-0 · NFC North

Biggest swing this week

Bears

32 pts

Bears: 78% with a win, 46% with a loss

Tightest division race

NFC East

Eagles 41% · Giants 38%

All 32 teams

NFL playoff odds by team
#	Team		Record				Record
1	VikingsMinnesota Vikings	89%	4-0	89%	62%	12.2	4-0
2	49ersSan Francisco 49ers	88%	4-0	88%	49%	12.1	4-0
3	JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars	87%	3-1	87%	75%	11.6	3-1
4	ChiefsKansas City Chiefs	83%	4-0	83%	59%	11.2	4-0
5	SeahawksSeattle Seahawks	83%	3-1	83%	39%	11.6	3-1
6	BillsBuffalo Bills	83%	3-1	83%	56%	11.1	3-1
7	PatriotsNew England Patriots	72%	2-2	72%	40%	10.1	2-2
8	RavensBaltimore Ravens	66%	3-1	66%	39%	10.2	3-1
9	BearsChicago Bears	64%	3-1	64%	21%	10.2	3-1
10	BroncosDenver Broncos	62%	2-2	62%	28%	9.8	2-2
11	RamsLos Angeles Rams	57%	2-2	57%	11%	9.6	2-2
12	BrownsCleveland Browns	50%	3-1	50%	24%	9.4	3-1
13	EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles	48%	2-2	48%	41%	8.8	2-2
14	GiantsNew York Giants	47%	3-1	47%	38%	8.9	3-1
15	BengalsCincinnati Bengals	47%	2-2	47%	20%	9.1	2-2
16	FalconsAtlanta Falcons	46%	2-2	46%	38%	8.3	2-2
17	SteelersPittsburgh Steelers	41%	2-2	41%	17%	8.7	2-2
18	LionsDetroit Lions	41%	2-2	41%	12%	8.9	2-2
19	PanthersCarolina Panthers	40%	2-2	40%	35%	8.0	2-2
20	ColtsIndianapolis Colts	38%	2-2	38%	18%	8.4	2-2
21	RaidersLas Vegas Raiders	36%	3-1	36%	12%	8.4	3-1
22	PackersGreen Bay Packers	26%	2-2	26%	5%	7.9	2-2
23	CowboysDallas Cowboys	20%	2-3	20%	14%	7.1	2-3
24	BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers	17%	1-4	17%	14%	6.3	1-4
25	TexansHouston Texans	17%	0-4	17%	7%	6.8	0-4
26	SaintsNew Orleans Saints	17%	1-3	17%	14%	6.4	1-3
27	CommandersWashington Commanders	12%	1-3	12%	7%	6.2	1-3
28	JetsNew York Jets	8%	1-3	8%	2%	5.5	1-3
29	CardinalsArizona Cardinals	6%	1-3	6%	<1%	5.8	1-3
30	ChargersLos Angeles Chargers	6%	0-4	6%	2%	5.1	0-4
31	DolphinsMiami Dolphins	4%	0-4	4%	2%	4.6	0-4
32	TitansTennessee Titans	2%	0-4	2%	1%	3.8	0-4

How these odds work

Each team has a rating built from every NFL result since 1999. After every game, the winner gains rating points and the loser drops them, more for bigger wins and upsets. We then play out the rest of the season 20,000 times using those ratings, including home-field advantage and the chance of ties, and apply the NFL’s official seeding and tiebreaker rules to every simulated season.

Each simulated season also allows for the chance that a team is better or worse than its rating says. That spread is what keeps early-season odds from being overconfident.

Early in the season, ratings still lean heavily on last season. That’s why a 2-2 team that was strong last year can rank above a 3-1 team that wasn’t.

Tested on every season from 2015 to 2025: teams we gave a 60–80% chance made the playoffs 71% of the time; teams given 80–95% made it 87% of the time.

Odds are estimates. Clinching and elimination are on the magic numbers page, where every status is a mathematical guarantee.

FAQ

Which NFL team has the best playoff odds?: The Minnesota Vikings (4-0) have the best playoff odds at 89%, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at 88% and the Jacksonville Jaguars at 87%.
How are NFL playoff odds calculated?: Each team has a rating built from every NFL result since 1999. We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times using those ratings, including home-field advantage and the chance of ties, and apply the NFL's official seeding and tiebreaker rules to every simulated season.
How often are the odds updated?: After every game, usually within an hour or two of the final score.